Upgrades For Week 8 Tight End Rankings: Dallas Goedert Flies Over Commanders

Let's get into the Week 8 WR edition of Freedman's Favorites, where I highlight guys I'm upgrading because of …

Favorable betting factors and situational spots
Advantageous defensive matchups (perhaps aided by injury)
Increased usage expectations (again, maybe aided by injury)

For process notes regarding this series, see the end of this piece. Also, check out the rest of my Week 8 favorites and fades.

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Week 8 Tight End Rankings

Rank	Player	Team	Opponent
1	Trey McBride	ARI	DAL
2	Brock Bowers	LV	NYJ
3	Tucker Kraft	GB	CAR
4	Colston Loveland	CHI	SEA
5	Sam LaPorta	DET	MIN
6	Mo Alie-Cox	IND	JAC
7	Dallas Goedert	PHI	WAS
8	Dalton Kincaid	BUF	BAL
9	Travis Kelce	KC	DEN
10	Kyle Pitts	ATL	TB
11	T.J. Hockenson	MIN	DET
12	Hunter Henry	NE	MIA
13	Harold Fannin	CLE	PIT
14	Chig Okonkwo	WAS	PHI
15	Brenton Strange	JAC	IND

Week 8 Matchup Upgrades: Dallas Goedert at Commanders & T.J. Hockenson at Lions

There are a few "flow chart" defenses so bad that they provide automatic upgrades to whatever TEs they face. If a guy is playing one of them, I aggressively move him up my ranks. If not, I carry on.

Based on the numbers I see in our Fantasy Life DvP (Defense vs. Position) Matrix as well as RBs Don't Matter and FTN, the Commanders and Lions are two of the biggest flow chart defenses for TEs.

Commanders: No. 32 in defensive pass DVOA vs. TEs (38.4%)
Lions: No. 1 in largest fantasy boost allowed to TEs (+11.1)

Bang a gong.

Dallas Goedert (Eagles) at Commanders: Goedert has been serviceable in his two games with backup QB Tanner McKee as the starter (8.2 fantasy points per game, 11-109-0 receiving, 15 targets, 75 Utilization Score, per our Fantasy Life Utilization Report), and now he might see extra work with WRs DeVonta Smith (hamstring) and Dontayvion Wicks (ankle) and RB Saquon Barkley (back/hamstring) all uncertain. The Commanders have a drastically reduced HFA because the Eagles play in division on a similar grass surface in a similar outdoor stadium. The Commanders are coming off the bye, and the Eagles are losing a day off Monday Night Football, but divisional road dogs tend to be sharp (752-641-37 ATS, 4.8% ROI), and HC Nick Sirianni has done well as a road dog in the past (8-4 ATS, 29.9% ROI, per Action Network).

T.J. Hockenson (Vikings) at Lions: Hockenson exited Week 5 early with an injury, but he returned in Week 7 off the bye looking rejuvenated (11.5 fantasy points, 4-35-1 receiving, 5 targets, 22% air yard share, 100% end zone target share, 77 Utilization Score). Over the past five years, the Lions have had the league's No. 2 HFA (+7.69, per NFElo), and this is their second straight home game, but the Vikings have cut their home edge to the core because they play in division on a similar turf surface in a similar indoor stadium. Plus, divisional road dogs tend to be sharp (752-641-37 ATS, 4.8% ROI), QB Kyler Murray as a road dog has been exceptional (29-13-2 ATS, 32.2% ROI), and the Lions could be without CB Ennis Rakestraw (ankle) on top of FS Kerby Joseph (knee, PUP). I'd be willing to start Hockenson in Guillotine Leagues^TM this week.

Week 8 Scoring Upgrades: Dalton Kincaid vs. Ravens & Hunter Henry at Dolphins

Sometimes upgrades are as simple as: "This team is going to score a lot of points, so I need to bump up the TE."

This week, the Bills are No. 2 in implied team total (28.5 points); the Patriots, No. 5 (26.0).

Upgrades warranted.

Dalton Kincaid (Bills) vs. Ravens: Sadly, long gone are the glory days of Weeks 1-2 (17.2 fantasy points per game, 12-225-1 receiving, 14 targets, 92 Utilization Score). Since Week 3, Kincaid has been a disaster (3.6 fantasy points per game, 11-90-0 receiving, 15 targets, 50 Utilization Score). What makes me think this week might be any different? The Bills are off the bye, so perhaps they've self-scouted and decided to feature Kincaid more. Additionally, the Ravens are on their third road game in four weeks, they're No. 29 in defensive pass DVOA vs. TEs (27.3%), and they could be without FS Jaylinn Hawkins (knee).

Hunter Henry (Patriots) at Dolphins: Nos. 2-3 WRs Romeo Doubs (shoulder, IR) and Mack Hollins (calf, IR) are out, and since Hollins exited in Week 4, Henry has been a functional part of the offense (11.0 fantasy points per game, 19-225-2 receiving, 21 targets, 70 Utilization Score). The Pats have a three-day edge coming off Thursday Night Football, QB Drake Maye tends to crush in division (9-3 ATS, 43.0% ROI), and the Dolphins are No. 3 in most fantasy points allowed to TEs (17.1) and could be without LB Willie Gay (illness).

Week 8 Injury Upgrades: Tucker Kraft vs. Panthers & Travis Kelce at Broncos

Here are a couple TEs who get upgrades because of offensive and/or defensive injuries.

Tucker Kraft (Packers) vs. Panthers: Fantasy investors are still waiting for Kraft to have his first truly big performance of the season. So far, he has been disappointingly mediocre in both production (8.1 fantasy points per game, 29-297-2 receiving, 43 targets with 2-5-0 rushing) and usage (71% route rate, 17% target share, 9% air yard share, 14% end zone target share, 68 Utilization Score). This week, though, we could finally get a big game: No. 2 WR Matthew Golden (shoulder, foot) looks unlikely to play, and the Packers are playing their third game in four weeks at home, where they have a boosted edge because they're outside division and on grass (vs. turf).

Travis Kelce (Chiefs) at Broncos: Kelce has had a functional campaign this season (9.7 fantasy points per game, 24-343-2 receiving, 35 targets, 80% route rate, 73 Utilization Score), but over the past month he has been less than livable (5.4 fantasy points per game, 10-112-0 receiving, 17 targets, 61 Utilization Score). Perhaps he'll bounce back now: The Broncos have had the league's No. 3 HFA over the past five years (+6.87), and this is the second straight road game for the Chiefs, but they've also drastically cut down that edge because they play in division on a similar grass surface in a similar outdoor stadium. On top of that, No. 1 WR Rashee Rice (hamstring) is uncertain, as are No. 1 CB Patrick Surtain (ankle) and SS Talanoa Hufanga (ankle).

Notes

Week 8 Favorites & Fades: Here's the full series.

Introduction
QB Favorites
QB Fades
RB Favorites
RB Fades
WR Favorites
WR Fades
TE Favorites
TE Fades

Byes: This week, the 49ers, Saints, Giants, and Texans are off.

Market Odds: As of Tuesday afternoon.

Injuries: Since I write Freedman's Favorites on Monday and Tuesday, I have incomplete injury information. After I submit this article, any updated thoughts I have regarding injuries will manifest in my rankings. For our quick fantasy thoughts every day, subscribe to the Fantasy Life newsletter.

Schedule: This season, I have the following rankings schedule.