Upgrades For Week 8 Running Back Rankings: Javonte Williams Rides Again

Let's get into the Week 8 RB edition of Freedman's Favorites, where I highlight guys I'm upgrading because of …

• Favorable betting factors and situational spots
• Advantageous defensive matchups (perhaps aided by injury)
• Increased usage expectations (again, maybe aided by injury)

For process notes regarding this series, see the end of this piece. Also, check out the rest of my Week 8 favorites and fades.

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Week 8 Running Back Rankings

Week 8 Matchup Upgrades: Josh Jacobs vs. Panthers & Rhamondre Stevenson at Dolphins

There are a few "flow chart" defenses so bad that they provide automatic upgrades to whatever RBs they face. If a guy is playing one of them, I aggressively move him up my ranks. If not, I carry on.

Based on the numbers I see in our Fantasy Life DvP (Defense vs. Position) Matrix as well as RBs Don't Matter and FTN, the Panthers and Dolphins are two of the biggest flow chart defenses for RBs.

• Panthers: No. 2 in most fantasy points allowed to RBs (26.5)
• Dolphins: No. 2 in largest fantasy boost allowed to RBs (+5.0)

Bang a gong.

Josh Jacobs (Packers) vs. Panthers: Jacobs posted an RB1 finish in his first game back (17.6 fantasy points, 91 yards, 1 TD on 11 carries, 7 targets, 84 Utilization Score, per our Fantasy Life Utilization Report). Basically, he looked more or less like the guy the Packers had in the 2024-25 seasons (2,882 yards, 30 TDs). The Packers could be without C Sean Rhyan (ankle) and RG Travis Glover (knee), but they have a boosted HFA because they're outside division and on grass (vs. turf), and the Panthers could be without EDGE Jaelan Phillips (hamstring). In his one game against the Panthers last year, Jacobs did what he does (18.0 fantasy points, 100 yards, 1 TD on 17 carries, 5 targets).

Rhamondre Stevenson (Patriots) at Dolphins: It's annoying that Stevenson must share work with RBs TreVeyon Henderson and Corey Kiner, but over the past month he has still been serviceable (14.1 fantasy points per game, 310 yards, 3 TDs on 46 carries, 13 targets, 72 Utilization Score). The Pats have a three-day edge coming off Thursday Night Football, QB Drake Maye tends to crush in division (9-3 ATS, 43.0% ROI, per Action Network), and Stevenson destroyed the Fins in two games last year (26.5 fantasy points per game, 295 yards, 3 TDs on 18 carries, 7 targets).

Week 8 Scoring Upgrades: Javonte Williams vs. Cardinals & Chase Brown vs. Titans

Sometimes upgrades are as simple as: "This team is going to score a lot of points, so I need to bump up the RB."

This week, the Cowboys are No. 1 in implied team total (30.5 points); the Bengals, No. 2 (28.5).

Upgrades warranted.

Javonte Williams (Cowboys) vs. Cardinals: The setup for the Cowboys is good. Although they're losing a day coming off Monday Night Football, they're indoors at home, where they have a boosted HFA because they're outside division and on turf (vs. grass). Williams could get a large workload as a -6.5 favorite, and the Cards could be without DT Walter Nolen (ankle). For the year, Williams is exceeding expectations (17.3 fantasy points per game, 575 yards, 9 TDs on 110 carries, 22 targets, 80 Utilization Score).

Chase Brown (Bengals) vs. Titans: As I noted last week in highlighting Brown as a fantasy fade, he has been woefully inefficient this season at turning his usage (81 Utilization Score) into actual production (10.1 fantasy points per game, 428 yards, 1 TD on 82 carries, 33 targets), and since Week 5 he has seen No. 2 RB Samaje Perine siphon off meaningful work (39% snap rate, 38% rush share, 50% goal-line rush share, 28% route rate). But this week he has a true shot to get on track: The Bengals are -10.5 home favorites, QB Joe Burrow has dominated against non-divisional opponents (40-17-2 ATS, 33.3% ROI), and the Titans are No. 30 in defensive rush DVOA (3.5%).

Week 8 Home Favorite Upgrades: Jaylen Warren vs. Browns & Kyren Williams vs. Chargers

In general, I want to be heavy on RBs favored at home, where they're likely to enjoy a more run-heavy game script.

Here are two such RBs who stand out.

Jaylen Warren (Steelers) vs. Browns: The setup isn't great for the Steelers. They have traveled more than any other team over the past month on account of playing in Paris last week (9,440 miles), and they have a drastically reduced HFA against the Browns because they play in division on a similar grass surface in a similar outdoor stadium. Plus, Warren's production has dipped since No. 2 RB Rico Dowdle returned from injury in Week 6 (12.0 fantasy points per game, 215 yards, 0 TDs on 32 carries, 8 targets, 77 Utilization Score). But the Steelers are -3.5 home favorites, and QB Aaron Rodgers has done well as a home favorite throughout his career (75-45-3 ATS, 20.8% ROI). With his talent (5.5 yards per carry, 8.6 yards per target) and regular workload this year (15+ opportunities in every game), Warren is always a candidate for a peak performance.

Kyren Williams (Rams) vs. Chargers: The Rams have a hilariously subpar setup in that the Chargers are coming off the bye and they play in literally the same stadium, so even though the Rams are -6.5 favorites at home, they have almost no HFA. But the Chargers are No. 28 in defensive rush DVOA (0.1%), and Williams is on pace for his fourth straight season of 1,200+ yards and 12+ TDs (17.3 fantasy points per game, 731 yards, 6 TDs on 96 carries, 41 targets, 90 Utilization Score). Even with No. 2 RB Blake Corum stealing more work over the past two weeks (36% snap rate, 49% rush share, 50% goal-line rush share, 16% route rate), Williams should get enough usage to capitalize.

Week 8 Offensive Injury Upgrades: Rachaad White vs. Eagles & Jordan Mason at Lions

Here are a couple RBs who get upgrades because of offensive injuries.

Rachaad White (Commanders) vs. Eagles: With No. 1 RB Jacory Croskey-Merritt (groin, IR) out in Week 6, White stepped up to serve as the clear lead back for the Commanders (13.7 fantasy points, 57 yards, 1 TD on 7 carries, 5 targets, 79 Utilization Score), and now they're coming off the bye as -4.5 home favorites. Granted, the Commanders have a drastically reduced HFA against the Eagles because they play in division on a similar grass surface in a similar outdoor stadium, and HC Dan Quinn tends to disappoint as a favorite (29-41 ATS, -19.2% ROI), but the Eagles are losing a day off Monday Night Football, and they're No. 31 in defensive rush EPA (-0.008).

Jordan Mason (Vikings) at Lions: Over the past five years, the Lions have had the league's No. 2 HFA (+7.69, per NFElo), and this is their second straight home game, but the Vikings have cut their home edge to the core because they play in division on a similar turf surface in a similar indoor stadium. Plus, divisional road dogs tend to be sharp (752-641-37 ATS, 4.8% ROI), QB Kyler Murray as a road dog has been exceptional (29-13-2 ATS, 32.2% ROI) and the Lions are No. 25 in defensive rush EPA (-0.068). No. 1 RB Aaron Jones (knee) exited last week early, and in his absence Mason had a good workload (63% snap rate, 63% rush share, 47% route rate), although he failed to convert that usage into production (6.8 fantasy points, 68 yards, 0 TDs on 15 carries, 2 targets). This week, I expect him to translate opportunities into fantasy points. I'm comfortable starting Mason in Guillotine Leagues^TM this week.

Notes

Week 8 Favorites & Fades: Here's the full series.

• Introduction
• QB Favorites
• QB Fades
• RB Favorites
• RB Fades
• WR Favorites
• WR Fades
• TE Favorites
• TE Fades

Byes: This week, the 49ers, Saints, Giants and Texans are off.

Market Odds: As of Tuesday afternoon.

Injuries: Since I write Freedman's Favorites on Monday and Tuesday, I have incomplete injury information. After I submit this article, any updated thoughts I have regarding injuries will manifest in my rankings. For our quick fantasy thoughts every day, subscribe to the Fantasy Life newsletter.

Schedule: This season, I have the following rankings schedule.

• Tue AM: Publish
• Thu AM: Refresh
• Thu PM: Make necessary TNF changes
• Sat PM: Update
• Sun AM: Revise
• Sun PM: Finalize based on news prior to 1 pm ET kickoff

Accuracy: I'm a seven-time top-20 ranker in accuracy and a long-time profitable player prop bettor. 

Scoring: All fantasy points are half-PPR scoring unless otherwise stated.

Abbreviations: Here are some abbreviations I might have used in the piece.

• Against the Spread (ATS)
• Over/Under (O/U)
• Return on Investment (ROI)
• Adjusted Yards per Attempt (AY/A)
• Expected Points Added (EPA)
• Success Rate (SR)
• Defense-Adjusted Value Over Average (DVOA)
• Weighted Opportunity Rating (WOPR)
• Average Depth of Target (aDOT)
• Home-Field Advantage (HFA)