NFL Total (Over/Under) Picks for Week 7: Can the Falcons Keep Up With the 49ers?

It doesn’t get much better than feeling “hot” as a sports bettor, and we are definitely hot on over/under picks. We turned in our second straight 4-0 week in Week 6, pushing us to 11-1 over our past 12 picks. That’s obviously not sustainable over a full season, but let's enjoy the heater while we can.

Let’s get right back to work for our NFL betting picks for Week 7. As usual, I’ll highlight two of my favorite overs and two of my favorite unders. We have another four teams on bye this week (Bills, Jaguars, Chargers, Commanders), so there are fewer opportunities than usual to look for value. Still, there are some solid spots to consider.

Week 7 NFL Total (Over/Under) Picks

Pittsburgh Steelers at New Orleans Saints Over 44.5 (Paris)

Best Price: -107; Caesars
Play To: -115

The NFL continues its European tour in Week 7. This time, the Steelers and Saints will square off in Paris. Overseas games are always interesting for betting purposes, since you never know how teams will adjust to the travel. It’s adding an extra variable to a game that already has plenty of them.

That said, this number just feels too low in a vacuum. This isn’t the same Steelers team that we’ve grown accustomed to over the past handful of seasons. They’re still pretty good defensively—they’re sixth in EPA per play—but they’re also capable of putting some points on the scoreboard. They’ve scored at least 24 points in four straight games, and each of those contests has reached at least 45 points in total.

On the other side, the Saints are a prototypical over team. Their offense is 10th in the league in points per game, while their defense is 31st. They just combined for 61 points with the Giants last week, and four of their six games have reached at least that threshold. They hit 41 combined points in the lone exception, so the vast majority of their games have been high-scoring. As long as these offenses aren’t too jetlagged, I like their chances of reaching 45 combined points in Paris.

San Francisco 49ers at Atlanta Falcons Over 49.5

Best Price: -115; DraftKings
Play To: Over 50.5 (-108)

The 49ers are back to being an elite offensive team, at least for the time being. They’ve had to deal with a bunch of different injuries at receiver, and even Mike Evans went down last week. Still, they’re second in the league in EPA per play, and they’re No. 3 in terms of points scored. They have guys like Christian McCaffrey and George Kittle to help carry the load, and with Kyle Shanahan calling the plays, it ultimately shouldn’t matter who they have at receiver.

The Falcons’ offense has also been pretty good since getting Michael Penix back at quarterback. They’ve scored at least 23 points in four straight games, and each of those contests has reached at least 49 total points. The only game that didn’t eclipse 50 was against the Packers, and Green Bay managed just 14 total points. I think it’s pretty safe to say that the 49ers will exceed two touchdowns.

The sharps have shown some clear interest in the over, which has already pushed this total up a couple of points. I still think there’s some value up to 50.5, but I wouldn’t play it at much higher than that.

Green Bay Packers at Detroit Lions Under 53.5

Best Price: -105; DraftKings
Play To: -115

Anyone who has been following these picks may have just done a spit-take. I have been riding the Lions’ over all year, and they have been an absolute machine. They’ve hit the over in all five games, with each contest reaching at least 55 total points.

That said, I think it’s finally time to pivot. For starters, the Lions’ defense will be a little bit healthier following their Week 7 bye. Specifically, star safety Brian Branch will be active for the first time all season, which should help their secondary tremendously.

Additionally, the Packers’ defense has been lights out lately. They’re No. 2 in EPA per play defensively over their recent three-game win streak, so they should be able to slow the Lions down just a hair. If they can keep them under 30 points, I think this game has a good chance to go under.

Cleveland Browns at Tennessee Titans Under 37.5

Best Price: -112; BetMGM
Play To: Under 36.5 (-110)

This one has the potential to be ugly. These are two of the worst offensive teams in football: the Titans rank 30th in EPA per play, while the Browns are 26th. Both teams are coming off wins in Week 6, but neither exactly lit up the scoreboard. The Browns managed just 13 points and 237 yards of total offense, while the Titans had just 186 total yards. It was their third game this year with less than 200 yards, and they haven’t eclipsed 300 in a single game.

The defenses should ultimately dominate, and as long as they don’t create too many game-changing plays, I’m not sure how these two teams hit 38 points. That’s how little faith I have in Cam Ward and DeShaun Watson.