Best Bets For Week 7: Back The Texans Against J.J. McCarthy

You’re not going to hit a home run every week, and last week was a solid single up the middle for us. We went 3-2 on our selections, winning with the Bears, Panthers, and Titans and losing with the Ravens and Giants. J.J. McCarthy tried to put together a miraculous cover for us but ultimately came up short, while the Ravens bet was basically DOA. They did jump out to a 10-0 lead, but without Lamar Jackson, they were unable to put any other points on the scoreboard.

Still, it pushes our record to 17-13 for the year. That puts us in the black heading into Week 7. Let’s look to keep pushing forward, with five more selections for this week’s slate.

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NFL Best Bets For Week 7

Tennessee Titans (+1.5) vs. Cleveland Browns

Best Odds: -108; FanDuel
Play To: -115

The Browns picked up another win last week, pushing their record to 4-2 for the year. That’s definitely a bit of a surprise. Their preseason win total over/under was just 5.5, so they’ve almost exceeded that in less than half a year. They’re favored to pick up their fifth win in Week 7, which would make a trip to the postseason a distinct possibility.

That said, don’t mistake the Browns’ record for their talent level; this is still not a good football team. They have an expected record of just 2.5-3.5, while their offense ranks in the bottom five in both points and yards per game. Each of their wins has been by four points or fewer, and Deshaun Watson has needed a game-winning fourth-quarter drive in each of them.

That makes Cleveland a prime fade candidate moving forward, and this week vs. the Titans is as good a spot as any. The Browns are listed as road favorites, which is simply tough to wrap my head around. Cleveland has been a road favorite 19 times over the past seven seasons, and they have just a 5-14 ATS record in those contests.

The Titans are a bad team, but I don’t think there’s that much separating them from the Browns. I’m happy to take them as home underdogs, though I do want the +1.5. I typically will take the moneyline in these situations, but in a game with just a 36.5-point total, those 1.5 points could definitely come in handy.

Houston Texans (-10.5) vs. New York Giants

Best Odds: -105; Fanatics
Play To: -115

It’s J.J. McCarthy SZN in New York. He got into the game late last week for the Giants and led the team storming back. They were down 24 points when McCarthy entered, but they cut the deficit all the way to seven. They even had a drive to potentially tie the game late, but the team ultimately failed to convert on fourth down. McCarthy finished with a ridiculous 243 passing yards in just one quarter of work, which was enough to earn the starting nod for their matchup vs. the Texans.

That … doesn’t sound like a recipe for success.

The Texans’ defense hasn’t been as dominant as in previous years, but they should still have more than enough juice to take care of ~~Nine~~ 18. Almost all of McCarthy’s success last week came against backup defenders, and the Saints don’t have a particularly good defense to begin with. This is a serious step up in weight class, and McCarthy’s track record before last week is pretty terrible.

Meanwhile, the Texans should have no issues racking up points vs. the Giants. C.J. Stroud has played his best football since his rookie season, and the Giants are 21st in EPA per play defensively. If they can get to 21 points in this matchup, I don’t know how McCarthy keeps up.

Cincinnati Bengals (-1.5) at Baltimore Ravens

Best Odds: +103; Caesars
Play To: -110

We’re in the same situation this week as we were last week with the Ravens. Lamar Jackson is sidelined, and while we’re hopeful that he returns to the lineup, there’s no evidence that will actually be the case. He’s yet to return to practice, leaving Tyler Huntley to handle the first-team reps.

The downgrade from Jackson to Huntley is significant. We saw that just last week, with Huntley unable to score a single point in the second half vs. the Browns. If the Ravens have Jackson in that contest, they probably blow the doors off Cleveland.

Even if Jackson does return, there’s merit with the Bengals in this spot. Joe Burrow has a phenomenal track record as an underdog or short favorite, posting a 27-19-1 record when laying a field goal or less. This line has flipped from Ravens -1.5 to Bengals -1.5, but I’m still happy to take the Bengals at that figure.

Las Vegas Raiders (+4.0) vs. Los Angeles Rams

Best Odds: -110; Fanatics
Play To: +3.5 (-110)

I am officially a bit worried about the Rams. They were constructed as an extremely top-heavy team, which is great when that top-heavy talent stays healthy. That clearly hasn’t been the case to start the year. Myles Garrett has been out of the lineup since Week 1, and Davante Adams and Poona Ford picked up injuries last week. Other guys like Kobie Turner and Terrance Ferguson are also sidelined, while Trent McDuffie is questionable to suit up in Week 7.

With so much high-priced talent on the sidelines, it forces replacement-level players (or worse) into the starting lineup. We saw the result of that last week. The Rams didn’t just lose to the Cardinals; they were straight up outplayed. They outgained the Rams by more than 50 yards, and while they didn’t punch the ball into the endzone, their six field goals proved enough to secure the victory.

Matthew Stafford is nearly 40 years old, and he’s not capable of carrying a shorthanded team at this point in his career. He’s already seen a downtick in efficiency compared to last season, and with Adams out the next 6-10 weeks, we could see another drop moving forward.

The Raiders have been frisky to start the year, going toe-to-toe with the Chiefs and Bills in recent weeks. They’ve covered the spread in both contests, and I see no reason why they can’t do it again.

Detroit Lions (-3.0) vs. Green Bay Packers

Best Odds: -110; DraftKings
Play To: -112

The Packers are rolling at the moment, and I expect them to be a trendy underdog selection this week. They’re currently receiving 65% of the spread bets and 72% of the dollars, so the public clearly believes that their recent turnaround is real.

I’m a bit more skeptical. Their offense lit up the Bears in Week 5, but they came back to reality last week vs. the Cowboys. Jordan Love averaged just 6.1 adjusted yards per attempt against a subpar defense, so they’re not exactly firing on all cylinders.

Their defense has been the bigger reason for the turnaround. They’re second in EPA per play defensively over the past three weeks, trailing only the Vikings. I don’t think that’s likely to matter vs. Detroit. Their offense can score points in bunches against anyone, and the total on this game sits at 53.5 points. If this game turns into a shootout, I like the Lions’ chances against the Packers.

Additionally, the Lions are coming off their bye week, and their defense should be a bit healthier. They’ll have Brian Branch in the lineup for the first time all season, so they might not be as big of a disaster on defense as they have been for most of the year.